On Tuesday, October 14, Latvia will host Group K leaders England at the Daugava Stadium in Riga, with kick-off scheduled for 14:45. This matchup promises to be an intriguing clash, even if the odds heavily favor the visiting team. You may need both a map of Riga and a betting slip to navigate this qualifying group effectively.
England’s Strong Position
England appears well-positioned to dominate this match. Betting on them to cover a -2.75 Asian Handicap at around -122 seems like a wise move. In simpler terms, for a full return, England needs to win by at least three goals; a two-goal victory will result in a half push. Bookmakers currently estimate this selection has about a 55 percent chance of success. However, after analyzing possession rates, shooting statistics, and recent form, I would estimate the probability closer to 60 percent. This additional edge makes it a value wager.
Recent Performances
Let’s examine how both teams have been performing:
- Latvia: In their last competitive match, Latvia drew 2-2 against Andorra at home. Despite enjoying 65 percent possession, they only registered two shots on target and conceded twice. In their last ten qualifiers, Latvia has one win, six losses, and three draws, averaging just 0.6 goals per game from 6.1 shots, while allowing 1.5 goals from nearly 12 attempts. Dario Sits leads their scoring with two goals, and Andrejs Ciganiks has contributed two assists.
- England: In stark contrast, England recently crushed Serbia 5-0 away, dominating possession (65 percent) and attempting twelve shots on goal. Over their last ten qualifiers, they boast nine wins and a single loss, scoring an average of 2.7 goals per match from 16.8 attempts, while conceding only 0.3 goals. Harry Kane currently leads the campaign with seven goals, Declan Rice has four assists, and Jordan Pickford has kept eight clean sheets.
Historically, England have the upper hand, having won the last meeting at Wembley 3-0. Given this context, a one-sided encounter would not be surprising.
Correct Score Betting Opportunities
The correct score markets offer a chance to enhance your returns. Here are some of the latest odds:
- 0-5 England @ 7/1
- 0-3 England @ 11/2
- 1-4 England @ 12/1
- 0-6 England @ 10/1
- 1-5 England @ 15/1
- 2-4 England @ 45/1
My top pick for the correct score is 0-5 at 7/1. This aligns perfectly with our Asian Handicap perspective, providing an appealing payout if England finds their rhythm.
Player Props to Watch
Two player props stand out for this match:
- Morgan Rogers: Consider backing him to have under 0.5 shots on target at about +105. He has not hit the target in his last three appearances, and Latvia’s defense tends to sit deep.
- Bukayo Saka: Betting on him to score anytime at around +130 is another option. He has been effective in finding space and should receive plenty of service from the flanks.
Corners Market Insight
Keep an eye on the corners market as well. England has averaged just over four corners in their last ten away matches, while Latvia has conceded fewer than eight corners in three consecutive games. Betting on under 7.5 corners for England at roughly -152 seems like a reasonable play.
Conclusion
Overall, this match seems destined to be a comfortable outing for England. If you are inclined to bet on a 5-0 result at 7/1, it could be a fun wager—just remember to keep some change for a post-match celebratory pint. Even if England wins by only four goals, you’ll still be in a position to buy the first round. Enjoy the match!