Good day, fellow football enthusiasts! James Richardson here, ready to guide you through Thursday’s Europa Conference League qualifier between Viking and Istanbul Basaksehir. Picking winners in European qualifiers can be tricky, but I’ve found some value for us here.
Match Result: Viking to Win (-108)
I’m quite keen on Viking in the match result market at -108. The Norwegian side has been in formidable form at home, winning 4 of their last 5 matches at Lyse Arena and an impressive 13 of their last 18 on home soil. Add to that their current three-match winning streak, highlighted by a convincing 12-3 aggregate victory over Koper, and there’s reason for optimism.
My probability assessment suggests a 55-60% likelihood of a Viking victory, which is higher than the bookies’ implied 51.8%—this discrepancy offers excellent value.
Goals Market: Over 2.5 Goals
Given the recent form of both sides, goals shouldn’t be in short supply. Viking have averaged 2.0 goals per game across their last 10 matches, while Basaksehir have managed 1.9 goals in the same period. Viking’s last outing resulted in a thrilling 5-3 win over Koper, and Basaksehir recently netted four against Cherno More Varna.
With Viking’s Sander Svendsen coming off a hat-trick, and attacking threats like Peter Christiansen (5 goals) and Zlatko Tripic (4 goals) in fine form, combined with Basaksehir’s own potent attackers in Yusuf Sari and Krzysztof Piatek, we should expect plenty of action in front of goal.
Team Analysis
- Viking:
- Show strong attacking intent with an average of 4.7 shots on target from 12.9 attempts.
- Possess a 47% average possession rate, comfortable executing a counter-attacking strategy.
- Zlatko Tripic offers versatility as both a goalscorer and creator with 4 assists.
- Basaksehir:
- Won 6 of their last 10 matches, maintaining a 52.6% possession rate.
- Miguel Crespo has been pivotal, contributing 3 assists.
- Their defense, however, concedes an average of 1.9 goals per game, offering Viking a clear path to success.
The Verdict
When all factors are considered, Viking represents excellent value at -108 for the win. For those seeking bigger odds, exploring the Asian Handicap market could be beneficial.
Remember, successful betting, much like crafting the perfect Lancashire hotpot, isn’t about hitting the jackpot with every wager—it’s about finding a consistent edge and making informed decisions. Best of luck!