Today, we’re going to analyze the match between Chelsea and Benfica in the FIFA Club World Cup.
Although Chelsea only finished second in Group D, they’re still rated higher than Benfica—the winner of their group. I’ve researched this match so thoroughly that my wife thought I was secretly texting someone else—thankfully, she doesn’t know I’ve “fallen in love” with football statistics!
Recent Form Analysis
Benfica just defeated Bayern Munich 1-0 with a goal by Schjelderup in the 13th minute, despite having only 27% possession. Before that, they drew 2-2 with Boca Juniors and crushed Auckland City 6-0.
Chelsea has also looked strong, with a 3-0 win over Espérance de Tunis thanks to goals from Adarabioyo, Delap, and George, dominating with 74% possession. They started the tournament with a 2-0 win over Los Angeles FC but then lost 1-3 to Flamengo.
Impressive Stats
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Benfica: 7 wins, 3 draws in their last 10 matches; averaging 2.8 goals per game with 5.8 shots on target. Pavlidis leads the scoring with 10 goals.
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Chelsea: 6 wins, 2 losses, 2 draws in their last 10; averaging 1.1 goals per game from 5.1 shots on target. Enzo Fernandez leads with 2 goals.
Expert Insights
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Chelsea has won 4 of their last 5 matches.
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Chelsea has won 7 of their last 10 games.
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Chelsea has scored at least 2 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches.
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Benfica has failed to win in 3 of their last 5.
Prediction
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Match Result: Chelsea to win at odds of +110.
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Both Teams to Score: Yes (-133).
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Predicted Scoreline: Chelsea wins 2-1 (+700).
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Chelsea Over 4.5 Corners: Yes (-150).
Given their current form, Chelsea clearly has the potential to overcome Benfica. Their actual win probability is around 50–55%, higher than the 47.6% implied by the current odds—making this a valuable bet.
If you’re looking to combine bets, try a Bet Builder with: Chelsea to win + Both teams to score + Chelsea over 4.5 corners.
I’m confident Chelsea will take the win in this one—almost as certain as my wife asking, “How much did you bet this time?” after reading this analysis!