Deportivo Toluca will host Pachuca at Estadio Nemesio Diez in what promises to be an exciting Liga MX matchup. Toluca has the advantage of home comforts and familiarity with the high altitude, while Pachuca will aim to disrupt their plans. Let’s explore the key betting angles, analyze the selections, and have some fun along the way.
Why Take Toluca to Cover the -1 Handicap?
Toluca comes into this match as the favorites, making a bet on them at -1 on the Asian Handicap (around even money, or -106 in moneyline terms) a smart choice. This bet allows for a safety net: if Toluca wins by a single goal, your stake is refunded, which is referred to as a “push.” However, if Toluca wins by two or more goals, you collect your full profit.
Given Toluca’s strong home scoring record and Pachuca’s weaknesses in defense away from home, there is a solid chance of Toluca establishing that two-goal cushion. In simple terms, you are betting that Toluca will win comfortably.
Correct Score Considerations
For those looking for a bigger return, a 2-0 victory for Toluca is priced at approximately +750. This classic scoreline is realistic, not requiring a large number of goals to come through while avoiding the long odds of potential scoreless situations. This score aligns well with our handicap selection, as it predicts a clean sheet along with a win.
Other possible scorelines to consider include:
- 2-1 at +650
- 1-1 at +700
- 1-2 at +1150
- 2-2 at +1050
- 0-1 at +1300
- 1-0 at +800
- 0-0 at +1400
- 0-2 at +2000
Player Prop Focus: Enner Valencia’s Shots On Target
Even if Pachuca struggles, Enner Valencia often manages to find space and take a shot. He is available at approximately -147 to record at least one shot on target, which offers good value. Valencia averages well over half a shot on target per match in recent appearances. This prop allows you to back his involvement without relying on him to score, which can be more unpredictable. For those willing to take a chance, he is priced at +240 for an anytime goalscorer or +700 to open the scoring.
Corners Market: Bet on Under 9.5
For those interested in set pieces, the under 9.5 corners at around -111 is worth a look. Toluca’s last five matches have not hit double figures in corners, while Pachuca averages just under nine corners per game in their last five outings. If both teams maintain their trends, this line should hold steady.
Constructing a Combined Bet
If you enjoy merging different markets, consider this simple three-fold bet:
1. Toluca -1 Asian Handicap (-106)
2. Both Teams to Score: No (+123)
3. Enner Valencia Over 0.5 Shots On Target (-147)
This combination covers a comfortable home win, a clean sheet for Toluca, and some action from Valencia.
Alternative Markets to Consider
Here are other betting options to keep in mind:
- Full-time result: Toluca to win at around -179 (implying a 64% chance)
- Draw priced around +335
- Pachuca upset odds near +390
- Half-time lead for Toluca at roughly +102
- Over 2.5 goals if you expect a high-scoring game
- Both teams to score—yes priced at around -175 if you think Pachuca might find the net
Bankroll Management
Always remember that no bet is a sure thing. Allocate your stake based on your confidence levels. A small win on the correct score can feel gratifying if most of your bankroll is invested in the handicap. Spread your risk wisely and enjoy the match as it unfolds.
In Conclusion
If Toluca secures a two-goal victory, you will be celebrating like someone who just found extra fries at the bottom of the bag. If the match ends 1-0 and you get your stake back on the handicap, at least you won’t be left disappointed. Regardless of the outcome, enjoy the match, stick to sensible stakes, and may your Sunday evening be filled with cheers instead of tears.