Serbia will host Latvia at Stadion Dubocica in what promises to be an exciting World Cup qualifier. I’ve sifted through the statistics to help you make sense of the matchups. Spoiler alert: even if Latvia struggles to find the back of the net, their recent performances suggest they can keep the game within a two-goal margin. Let’s break down why the Asian Handicap tip of +2 at 1.83 is worth your consideration.
Current Form
Serbia’s Recent Performance
Serbia enters this matchup with a record of four wins, three defeats, and three draws over their last ten competitive games. Key statistics to note include:
- Goals Scored: An average of one goal per game
- Shots: 3.7 on target and 11.5 total attempts
- Goals Conceded: An average of one goal per match
- Corners: 5.3 per game
- Possession: Approximately 49%
Aleksandar Mitrović leads Serbia’s scoring with four goals, while Dusan Vlahović follows with three. However, Vlahović’s recent form is concerning; he has managed just one shot on target in his last seven games.
Latvia’s Recent Performance
Latvia’s track record looks more challenging: one win, six losses, and three draws in their last ten matches. Notable stats include:
- Goals Scored: Only 0.6 goals per match
- Shots: Just over two on target and under six total attempts
- Possession: Hovering around 42%
Despite their struggles, Latvia has surprisingly covered a +2 handicap in eight of their last ten matches. Furthermore, Serbia has failed to surpass this handicap in 19 of their last 20 fixtures, including their last two home games.
Head-to-Head Encounters
The last matchup saw Serbia secure a narrow 1-0 victory in Riga, emphasizing that anticipating a significant win margin may not be realistic. Instead, backing Latvia with a two-goal cushion appears to be a solid choice, especially since your stake would be returned if Serbia wins by exactly two goals.
Betting Odds and Predictions
Correct Score
For those interested in correct score predictions, you might consider Serbia winning 1-0 at odds of 7.00. This is a reasonable bet, given Serbia’s tendency to control possession while often finding it challenging to score multiple goals.
Player Props
Several player props are also worth considering:
- Dusan Vlahović: He has struggled with shot accuracy lately and has not exceeded 1.5 shots on target in seven consecutive matches. Therefore, betting on under 1.5 shots at around 2.02 could be wise.
- Andrija Živković: For a more creative option, Živković is priced at 3.90 to score. While he may not shine in every match, his capabilities at that price could yield good returns.
Set-Pieces and Corners
If you enjoy betting on set-pieces, you might want to lean towards under 8.5 corners. Latvia’s last five away matches have averaged fewer than seven corners, while Serbia’s previous two home qualifiers have not exceeded nine.
Same-Game Multi
A potential same-game multi could include:
- Latvia +2 on the Asian Handicap
- No on both teams to score
- Vlahović under 1.5 shots on target
This combination supports the underdog while acknowledging Serbia’s usual conservative attacking approach.
Odds Overview
As for the betting odds, Serbia is listed as a 1.24 favorite, suggesting about an 81% chance of winning according to the market. Latvia sits as the underdog at approximately 12.00, but their tendency to keep matches close adds some value to that price.
If you are considering the first goalscorer market, Vlahović is available at 3.65 to score first, or 1.85 to score anytime. Remember to manage your stakes carefully; the goal is to make informed bets, not chase unrealistic outcomes.
Conclusion
In summary, I’m backing Latvia to provide a solid challenge with a +2 handicap. And as for the condition of the pitch at Dubocica after 90 minutes, let’s hope the groundskeepers have done their job well, as this match could turn out to be a scrappy one. Enjoy the game, and remember: informed bets are the most enjoyable ones.