On matchday four of the 2025–26 season, PSG host Lens at Parc des Princes, and our prediction for under 3.5 goals proved to be spot on. Up until this point, PSG had been flawless, boasting a record as polished as a freshly chalked whiteboard. They were determined not to let that slip away.
PSG’s Impressive Start
The reigning champions kicked off the season with narrow victories:
- 1-0 at Nantes
- 1-0 against Angers
- 6-3 against Toulouse on the road
This impressive tally of nine points propelled them to the top of the league, level with Lyon. Meanwhile, Lens was positioned fifth, having accumulated six points. Their season had seen them stumble with a 1-0 loss at home to Lyon, but they rebounded with:
- A 2-1 win at Le Havre
- A 3-1 victory over Brest, coming from behind in both matches
Key Player Absences
During the international break, PSG faced setbacks as they lost Ousmane Dembélé and Désiré Doué to injuries. This seemed like an opportunity for Lens to end a troubling six-game losing streak against Les Parisiens in league play. You could almost sense the Lens coaching staff gearing up for an upset.
Statistical Insights
Our statistical model gave PSG a 52.76% chance of securing all three points, with a 15.11% likelihood of a draw and a 32.13% chance for a Lens victory. These figures, along with the recent form of both teams, underscored why betting on under 3.5 goals felt like a wise choice.
A Predictable Outcome
Ultimately, the match played out as we predicted—a tightly contested, low-scoring affair. If you managed to keep your nerves intact through the tense moments, consider yourself luckier than many of us who spent the evening clutching our lucky socks.
In the end, PSG maintained their dominance, but the game’s outcome highlighted the competitive spirit of both teams and the unpredictable nature of football.