Group G’s concluding match at Johan Cruyff Arena features the Netherlands taking on Lithuania. For the home team, this game serves more as a celebratory farewell than a crucial qualifier, as they have already secured the top position in the group. Conversely, Lithuania finds itself struggling at the bottom of the table. While this matchup appears heavily skewed in favor of the Dutch, surprises can happen in football, providing savvy bettors with potential value. If you’ve considered whether betting on the underdog can yield returns, Lithuania on a +3.5 Asian Handicap might just become your new favorite wager.
Recent Encounters and Current Form
In their previous meeting, the Netherlands narrowly defeated Lithuania 3-2 in an away game. This close scoreline could be significant, especially given the recent performances of both teams in World Cup qualifiers.
- Netherlands: In their last fixture, the Dutch played to a 1-1 draw against Poland despite controlling 58 percent of the possession and registering three shots on target. Memphis Depay was pivotal, showcasing his left-footed finishing ability.
- Lithuania: In stark contrast, Lithuania faced a 2-0 loss to Poland in Vilnius, managing just one shot on goal while conceding 48 percent of possession.
Netherlands’ Strong Performance
The Netherlands enters this match in fine form, boasting five wins, four draws, and only one loss in their last ten competitive games. Here are some key statistics:
- Goals: The Dutch have averaged 3.3 goals per game from an impressive 13.6 attempts.
- Possession: They maintain a dominant possession rate of 61.8 percent.
- Defensive Record: Opponents have averaged just 1.5 goals against them.
Memphis Depay leads the team with nine goals and four assists, supported by Cody Gakpo and Donyell Malen.
Lithuania’s Struggles
Lithuania’s recent record is less encouraging, with seven losses and three draws in ten games. Key statistics include:
- Goals Scored: They average just 0.8 goals from 3.2 shots on target per match.
- Goals Conceded: Lithuania allows 1.6 goals per game and typically has only 46.4 percent of possession.
Gvidas Gineitis has emerged as their standout attacker, while keeper Edvinas Gertmonas has recorded only one clean sheet.
Where’s the Value?
If you believe Lithuania can keep the score within four goals, consider placing a bet on the +3.5 Asian Handicap, available at approximately -123. Remarkably, Lithuania has covered this line in 20 consecutive matches, while the Netherlands has struggled to exceed the -3.5 margin at home, failing to achieve it in 17 of their last 20 home games.
- Odds Evaluation: Bookmakers suggest a success rate of around 55 percent for this bet, but a more realistic estimate might be closer to 60 or even 65 percent.
This bet offers a layer of safety in what could otherwise be a routine victory for the Dutch.
Additional Betting Opportunities
If set-piece drama excites you, consider that the last two home matches for the Netherlands featured over 8.5 corners. Odds around -127 indicate that this trend is likely to continue. Combine these elements in a bet builder with Lithuania +3.5, no goals for both teams, and over 8.5 corners for a well-rounded wager.
Exciting Wager Suggestions
For those seeking more thrill, a correct-score prediction of 3-0 in favor of the Netherlands, priced at approximately +450, presents a compelling opportunity. Why settle for the obvious outcome when you can elevate your betting experience? If Lithuania manages to keep the score within three goals, your handicap bet will still pay off, allowing for a stress-free viewing of the match.
Conclusion
As you prepare for this exciting fixture, remember to manage your stakes wisely and enjoy the game for what it is: a fitting finale for both teams, albeit at contrasting levels. Should Lithuania pull off an unexpected result, it will certainly make for an unforgettable story.