Mainz welcomes Samsunspor to the MEWA Arena for what promises to be an exciting Europa Conference League match. In this encounter, the Rhineland-Palatinate side goes head-to-head with Turkey’s Red Lightning. If you’re considering an underdog bet, the +1 Asian handicap on Samsunspor at -132 stands out as a key pick. They have successfully covered that line in nine of their last ten away matches.
Mainz’s Recent Form
Mainz comes into this match after a 2-2 draw against Bayern Munich, where they significantly struggled with possession, holding just 15 percent of the ball. Despite their lack of control in the game, Kacper Potulski and Jae-Sung Lee each scored, highlighting Mainz’s ability to make the most of limited opportunities.
Samsunspor’s Last Match
Samsunspor recently stumbled in a 2-0 loss at home to Istanbul Basaksehir in the Super Lig. They enjoyed 52 percent possession and managed six shots on goal but still fell short. In the Europa Conference League, Mainz drew 1-1 against Lech Poznan, while Samsunspor lost 2-1 to AEK Athens at home. Both teams have shown they can score goals and also struggle defensively, indicating a potentially close match.
### Statistical Insights
- Mainz has failed to cover the -1 handicap in seven consecutive matches and in 19 of their last 20 overall games.
- In contrast, Samsunspor has covered the +1 handicap in 16 of their last 20 matches.
- Bookmakers estimate the chances of a successful +1 result at 56.8 percent, but our analysis suggests a probability closer to 60-65 percent, indicating good value.
Scoreline Predictions
If you’re interested in specific scorelines, a 1-1 draw is priced at +525, making it a realistic outcome given both teams’ recent scoring habits without completely dominating possession. A small bet on this scoreline could yield a nice return if the match follows the expected pattern of both teams finding the net without overwhelming dominance.
Player to Watch
For those looking to place a bet on individual players, consider Samsunspor’s Cherif Ndiaye to score anytime at +310. He has scored three goals in his last five away matches, indicating he is comfortable playing on the road.
Corner Bets
Corner betters might find value in Mainz under 5.5 corners at -122. They have averaged just over four corners in their last ten matches, while Samsunspor has conceded fewer than six corners in eight straight outings. If you don’t expect Mainz to frequently challenge the byline, this line presents a favorable opportunity.
Suggested Bet Builder
For a well-rounded betting approach, consider combining Samsunspor +1, under 2.5 goals, and Mainz under 5.5 corners. This mix incorporates the value of the Asian handicap along with a low-scoring expectation and the corner line, all in one bet slip. With a bit of luck, you could enjoy a fruitful betting experience.
In summary, as Mainz takes on Samsunspor, keep an eye on the trends and statistics that could shape this encounter in the Europa Conference League.