There’s something thrilling about rooting for an underdog who gets a little support right from the start. Take Lithuania’s +3.5 Asian handicap against the Netherlands at the Johan Cruyff Arena. With odds of 1.81, this bet allows the visitors some breathing room, all while we can still cheer for a strong Dutch performance. It is like betting on a sprinter with a gentle head start. While it does not guarantee a win, it certainly adds an extra layer of excitement to the match.
Recent Form Analysis
Recent encounters indicate that Lithuania can keep the score respectable. When these teams last met in Vilnius, the Netherlands narrowly won 3-2. Prior to that, both teams had mixed results in World Cup qualifying. The Dutch drew 1-1 in Warsaw, with Memphis Depay scoring after enjoying 58 percent possession and making three attempts on goal. On the other hand, Lithuania suffered a 2-0 defeat at home to Poland, managing only one shot and 48 percent of the ball. If you are concerned that Lithuania might be intimidated, remember their spirited 3-2 defeat against the Dutch.
Team Statistics
Looking deeper into the numbers reveals a clearer picture:
Netherlands
- Last 10 Matches: 5 wins, 4 draws, 1 loss
- Goals Per Game: 3.3 from 13.6 attempts
- Shots on Target: 6.1
- Possession: 61.8 percent
- Corners: Approximately 5.5 per match
- Goals Conceded: 1.5 from 8.2 attempts and 3.8 on target
Lithuania
- Last 10 Matches: 7 losses, 3 draws
- Goals Per Game: 0.8 from 7.9 attempts
- Shots on Target: 3.2
- Possession: 46.4 percent
- Corners: 2.1
- Goals Conceded: 1.6 from 10.8 attempts and 4.8 on target
It is clear that qualifying for the tournament is challenging.
Why Bet on Lithuania +3.5?
Historically, Lithuania has covered the +3.5 line in 20 consecutive matches. The Dutch, even at home, have not beaten a -3.5 handicap in 17 of their last 20 games and in seven of their last ten overall. Betting markets suggest a 55.2 percent chance of success, but our analysis places it closer to 60-65 percent. That disparity is where the value lies.
Corner Kicks as a Secondary Market
Corners often fly under the radar, but they provide another betting angle. In both of their last two home games, the Netherlands recorded over 8.5 corners. With odds of 1.79, this is a fair bet that this trend continues. It is a secondary market that can enhance your overall return without solely depending on the match outcome.
Proposed Bet Builder
For a potentially lucrative combination, consider the following bet builder:
- Lithuania +3.5 at 1.81
- Both teams not to score at 1.30
- Over 8.5 corners at 1.79
This combination offers the chance to back a cushioned underdog while expecting a likely Dutch clean sheet and a good corner count, more pathways to a win and added excitement.
Quick Odds Summary
For those who prefer straight odds, here’s a quick rundown:
- Full Time: Netherlands 1.02, Draw 17.00, Lithuania 46.00
- Half Time: Netherlands 1.23, X 4.60, Lithuania 19.00
- Asian Handicap: -3.5 on the Dutch at 1.98, +3.5 on Lithuania at 1.81
- Total Goals: Under 2.5 pays 4.35, Over 2.5 is 1.20
- Both Teams to Score: Yes 3.25, No 1.30
- Score Prediction: 3-0 to the Netherlands available at 5.50
In football, just like in life, sometimes it pays to back a big name to deliver what you expect—without completely dominating the opposition. If Lithuania manages to keep the deficit to two goals, it would be an unexpected bonus for optimistic bettors.