Leeds United will welcome Tottenham Hotspur to Elland Road on Saturday, October 4, with kick-off set for 07:30. This match promises to deliver intense Northern derby spirit, even if it’s not a geographically local clash.
Recent Performance and Team Form
Under the guidance of Daniel Farke, Leeds have shown significant resilience this season. Their approach can be compared to your grandmother’s cooking before a Michelin inspector; while it might be tough to impress, they certainly put in the effort.
In their latest match, Leeds drew 2-2 with Bournemouth. Despite only managing 42% possession, they managed to take eight shots on target, with goals from Joe Rodon and Sean Longstaff. Conversely, Tottenham has struggled with form recently, drawing their last three matches, including a 1-1 draw against Wolves and a 2-2 draw against Bodø/Glimt midweek.
Historical Context
Historically, Leeds have faced tough challenges against Tottenham. Spurs have triumphed in five of the last six meetings, including a decisive 4-1 victory at Elland Road last April. However, the home crowd will remind fans that football can change dramatically in just a fortnight.
Statistical Overview
In their last ten league outings:
- Leeds United:
- Wins: 6
- Draws: 2
- Losses: 2
- Average Goals Scored: 1.9 per match
- Average Shots on Target: 5 (from 13 attempts)
- Possession: 55%
- Average Corners: 5.2
- Goals Conceded: Less than 1 per match
- Leading Scorer: Joel Piroe (4 goals)
- Tottenham Hotspur:
- Wins: 3
- Draws: 3
- Losses: 4
- Average Goals Scored: 1.3 per match
- Average Shots on Target: 2.9 (from 9.2 attempts)
- Possession: Just over 50%
- Average Corners: 5.1
- Goals Conceded: 6.2 per match
- Leading Scorer: Richarlison (3 goals)
Predicted Lineups
Leeds United (4-3-3 Formation):
- Goalkeeper: Karl Darlow
- Defenders: Jayden Bogle, Joe Rodon, Pascal Struijk, Gabriel Gudmundsson
- Midfielders: Sean Longstaff, Ethan Ampadu, Anton Stach
- Forwards: Brenden Aaronson, Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Noah Okafor
Tottenham Hotspur (4-2-3-1 Formation):
- Goalkeeper: Guglielmo Vicario
- Defenders: Pedro Porro, Cristian Romero, Micky van de Ven, Destiny Udogie
- Midfielders: Joao Palhinha, Rodrigo Bentancur
- Forwards: Mohammed Kudus, Lucas Bergvall, Xavi Simons behind Richarlison
Betting Insights
For those considering a bet, backing Leeds on the Asian Handicap +0.25 at around –132 seems reasonable. Your stake is divided between a potential draw (0 to +0.5 goals), which would net you half your bet back. Bookmakers are pricing this at a 56.8% probability, but my estimation leans closer to 60-65%, when considering Leeds’ home form and Tottenham’s pattern of drawing blanks in crucial moments.
Leeds have covered +0.25 in their last three home matches and four of their last six overall. In contrast, Spurs have failed to cover –0.25 in seven of their last ten games and in 14 of their last 20.
Conclusion
In conclusion, I believe Leeds has what it takes to maintain a tight match and potentially claim at least one point. And if things don’t pan out as hoped, you’ll still have ample time to enjoy a comforting cup of tea—just make sure the kettle is working.