Italy welcomes Norway to San Siro in a high-stakes showdown for the top position in Group I. Norway currently leads the group, sitting three points clear with a healthy goal difference. They only need to avoid a heavy defeat to secure a spot in next summer’s finals. On the other hand, Italy must secure a win to keep their hopes of qualification alive. This matchup resembles the challenge of eating a bowl of spaghetti without dropping a strand, but with focus and flair, it can be achieved.
Recent Performances
Italy’s Recent Form
Italy comes into this match riding the momentum of a 2-0 victory away against Moldova. Under Gennaro Gattuso, the team displayed dominant possession, controlling around 70 percent of the ball. They registered nine shots on target and saw Gianluca Mancini and Francesco Pio Esposito find the back of the net.
- Last 10 Competitive Matches:
- Wins: 6
- Losses: 3
- Draws: 1
- Goals Per Game: 2.5
- Shots on Target Per Match: 6.3
- Total Attempts Per Match: 18
In terms of possession, Italy averages about 57 percent, completes over 500 passes per game, and wins just over six corners. Defensively, they concede around 1.6 goals per match, with an average of 3.9 shots on target and nine attempts against them. Key players include:
- Top Scorer: Moise Kean (6 goals)
- Support Scorers: Mateo Retegui (5 goals), Giacomo Raspadori (4 goals)
- Assist Leaders: Federico Dimarco, Mateo Retegui (4 assists each)
- Clean Sheets: Gianluigi Donnarumma (3)
Norway’s Recent Form
Norway is coming off a convincing 4-1 victory against Estonia. Managed by Staale Solbakken, they created seven shots on target and maintained 68 percent possession. Alexander Soerloth and Erling Haaland each scored twice in the match.
- Last 10 Competitive Matches:
- Wins: 9
- Losses: 1
- Goals Per Game: 4.3
- Shots on Target Per Match: 7.3
- Total Attempts Per Match: 18.6
Norway averages about 58 percent possession, completes nearly 540 passes, and earns just over five corners per game. Defensively, they concede approximately one goal per match from 3.0 shots on target. Key players include:
- Top Scorer: Erling Haaland (18 goals)
- Additional Scorers: Alexander Soerloth (7 goals), Thelo Aasgaard (5 goals)
- Assist Leader: Martin Ødegaard (7 assists)
- Clean Sheets: Ørjan Håskjold Nyland and Egil Selvik (3 combined)
Head-to-Head History
In their last encounter on Norwegian soil, Norway emerged victorious with a 3-0 win. With Norway sitting comfortably at the top of the group, Italy must overturn this recent head-to-head result to keep their qualification hopes alive.
Predicted Lineups
Italy (4-2-3-1 Formation):
- Goalkeeper: Guglielmo Vicario
- Defenders: Raoul Bellanova, Gianluca Mancini, Alessandro Buongiorno, Federico Dimarco
- Midfielders: Samuele Ricci, Bryan Cristante
- Forwards: Matteo Politano, Giacomo Raspadori, Mattia Zaccagni
- Striker: Gianluca Scamacca
Norway (4-4-2 Formation):
- Goalkeeper: Ørjan Håskjold Nyland
- Defenders: Julian Ryerson, Kristoffer Vassbakk Ajer, Torbjørn Lysaker Heggem, David Møller Wolfe
- Midfielders: Oscar Bobb, Sander Berge, Patrick Berg, Antonio Nusa
- Forwards: Alexander Soerloth, Erling Haaland
Betting Insights
From a betting perspective, there is solid value in backing over 2.5 goals at around 1.65 odds.
- Statistics to Consider:
- Italy has seen at least three goals in nine of their last ten home matches.
- Norway has also hit that mark in nine of their last ten matches and in 16 of their last 20 overall.
Bookmakers estimate this bet to have a 60.6 percent chance, while our analysis leans closer to 70 percent. As always, it’s vital to stake wisely and consider your overall bankroll instead of chasing a single result. For those seeking a thrilling combination, consider pairing the over 2.5 goals with a Norway victory to boost the odds.
Conclusion
Prepare for an exciting match, and expect possibly more goals than you might see at a family barbecue.