Comoros and Mali face off at Stade Mohamed V in what is expected to be a low-scoring match. Both teams have shown a tendency to prioritize defense, making a bet on under 2.5 goals at around -137 a sensible choice. If you are hoping for a high-scoring game, you might find more excitement watching sparklers on your TV screen.
Recent Form
Let’s take a closer look at each team’s recent performances. In their last match, Comoros played to a 0-0 draw against Zambia, managing 53% possession but only registering one shot on target. Mali had a similarly cautious approach in their game against Morocco, where they held 39% of the ball and also recorded just one shot on goal. However, they managed to score through Lassine Sinayoko in a 1-1 draw.
Given their defensive strategies, goals are likely to be scarce in this matchup.
Head-to-Head Record
The historical meetings between Comoros and Mali do not point towards a goal fest. In their latest encounter, Mali secured a convincing 3-0 victory during World Cup qualifying. However, it is important to note that both teams have tightened their defenses since then. In fact, seven of the last ten matches between these teams have featured two goals or fewer.
Scoring Trends
Analyzing the scoring trends further clarifies the expectations for this match:
- Comoros: Under 2.5 goals have occurred in four of their last five matches, 14 of their last 20, and in each of their last three games.
- Mali: Similarly, under 2.5 goals have landed in four of their last five games, 14 of their last 20, and in each of their last two matches.
Bookmakers currently assign a 57.8% probability for under 2.5 goals, but our analysis suggests this figure is closer to 60-65%. If you want better odds, consider combining under 2.5 goals with a bet on “no” for both teams to score, which necessitates at least one team delivering a clean sheet.
Correct Score Predictions
For those interested in specific outcomes, a 2-0 victory for Mali appears to be the most likely result, boasting odds of around +450. Other popular correct-score odds include:
- 1-0 at +950
- 1-1 at +540
- 0-1 at +420
- 2-1 at +1300
- 0-2 at +700
Player Props
On the player front, Lassine Sinayoko is a solid pick for anytime goalscorer at +180. He has scored in each of his last three international appearances and will be eager to keep his streak alive.
Bet Builder Options
If you enjoy constructing bets, consider this three-leg combination:
- Total goals under 2.5 (-137)
- Full-time winner: Mali (-200)
- Anytime goalscorer: Lassine Sinayoko (+180)
As of now, Mali stands as around -204 favorites to win, reflecting a 67% implied probability, while Comoros can be backed at approximately +650. The Asian handicap market shows Mali -1 at roughly -118, which pays out fully if they win by two or more goals and refunds your stake if they win by a single goal. Additionally, the “no” option for both teams to score is near -156, further highlighting the defensive focus of both teams.
Final Thoughts
If you’re planning to get involved in the betting action, don’t miss out on the BetMGM promo code for up to $1,500 in bonus bets. Now, all that’s left is to relax with your favorite drink, but do be careful not to spill it during what might be a tense 1-0 match.