Austria will make the short trip across Vienna to face the underdogs, San Marino, at the Ernst Happel Stadion on Thursday, October 9. Kick-off is set for 14:45 as the teams clash in their latest World Cup qualifying fixture. On paper, this match appears to be an easy win for the home side; however, a closer look at the statistics suggests that San Marino could cover the Asian handicap line of +5.5 at approximately –111.
Recent Form and Statistics
In their most recent match, Austria narrowly defeated Bosnia-Herzegovina 2-1 on the road. The team enjoyed 57 percent possession and registered four shots on target. Goals from Marcel Sabitzer and Konrad Laimer secured the victory. In contrast, San Marino suffered a significant 6-0 loss to Bosnia-Herzegovina at home, where they managed only 27 percent possession and a single shot on target. If there was ever a wake-up call, this was it.
When these two teams have met in qualifying matches, Austria has been dominant, winning every encounter. Their latest match against San Marino ended in a 4-0 victory at Stadio Olimpico in San Marino. Currently, Austria sits atop their group with four wins from four matches, netting nine goals while conceding only two. San Marino, however, has played five matches, lost them all, and conceded 18 goals, managing just one goal of their own.
The Case for San Marino
While Austria’s form looks impressive, one must recognize that form lines can be misleading. The +5.5 cushion for San Marino has proven to be a reliable safety net. Notably, they have covered this line in seven consecutive away matches, as well as in 16 of their last 17 on the road and nine of their last ten overall. Despite Austria’s offensive capabilities, they have not won by more than five goals at home in their last 20 attempts—indicating that San Marino may have developed a knack for keeping matches closer than expected.
Austria’s Competitive Edge
Examining Austria’s recent performance, their last ten competitive games have yielded seven wins, one loss, and two draws. The team averages 2.2 goals per match from 7.1 shots on target, controls around 63 percent possession, and earns nearly five corners per game. Defensively, they concede fewer than one goal on average, with under two shots on target and about seven attempts against them.
Michael Gregoritsch leads the scoring charts with five goals this campaign, while Marko Arnautović has contributed four assists. Goalkeeper Alexander Schlager has kept three clean sheets this season.
On the other hand, San Marino’s last ten matches reflect a tougher struggle, with two wins, one draw, and seven losses. They average just under five total attempts per game, with fewer than two shots on target and around 0.7 goals per match while conceding approximately 2.3 goals from six shots on target. Their possession rate hovers around 37 percent, with just under three corners won and over five conceded.
Betting Insights
Our perspective is straightforward: San Marino +5.5 is undervalued. The market-implied chance sits at approximately 52.6 percent, but our assessment suggests the actual probability is closer to 55–60 percent, presenting a genuine value opportunity.
For those looking to diversify their bets, consider integrating this selection into a multi-leg builder alongside corner markets or goal-scorer bets to enhance the odds. Just be sure to manage your bankroll wisely and maintain sensible stakes.
Conclusion
In summary, we are backing San Marino to keep the score within six goals and hope for a profitable payout. If everything goes as planned, you may just treat yourself to an extra bag of crisps during the post-match analysis (responsibly, of course). Good luck!