On a crisp Sunday morning, Aston Villa will welcome Burnley to Villa Park on October 5th, with kick-off scheduled for 09:00. If you’ve ever tried to cheer for your team before breakfast, you know it takes dedication. However, goals at this hour can serve as a motivating incentive. Both teams have demonstrated their ability to score this season, making our primary betting tip to back “Both Teams to Score” at odds of 106.
Why Bet on Both Teams to Score?
The reasoning is straightforward: Aston Villa’s home defense has not been particularly strong, while Burnley possesses enough attacking prowess to challenge Unai Emery’s defense. The odds of 106 imply approximately a 51.5% chance of this outcome, but considering recent form and head-to-head statistics, our tipsters believe the true probability lies between 55% and 60%.
Recent Form
Aston Villa enters this match with optimism after defeating Fulham 3-1 at Villa Park, thanks to goals from Ollie Watkins, John McGinn, and Emiliano Buendia. They also secured a 2-0 win against Feyenoord in the Europa League midweek.
Conversely, Burnley has faced challenges, losing their last three away matches, including a disappointing 5-1 defeat against Manchester City, where they managed just two shots on target and held 32% possession. Jaidon Anthony scored their only goal in that match.
Head-to-Head History
In the last two meetings between Aston Villa and Burnley, Villa has emerged victorious, winning 3-2 at home and 3-1 away. Over the previous eight encounters, Villa has secured four wins, with Burnley achieving one win and three matches ending in draws.
Aston Villa’s Performance Overview
In their last ten league games, Aston Villa has the following record:
- Wins: 4
- Draws: 3
- Losses: 3
Key Stats:
- Average Goals per Match: 0.8
- Average Shots on Target: 3.0
- Total Attempts: 9.7
- Possession: 53.5%
- Average Passes Completed: 401.3
- Average Corners: 4.9
Defensively, they have conceded an average of 0.8 goals from 3.7 shots on target and 12.2 attempts per match. Ollie Watkins leads their scoring chart with two goals, followed by McGinn, Buendia, Matty Cash, and Ezri Konsa, each with one goal. Morgan Rogers has provided three assists.
Burnley’s Performance Overview
Burnley’s recent league performance looks more favorable:
- Wins: 5
- Draws: 1
- Losses: 4
Key Stats:
- Average Goals Scored per Match: 1.8
- Average Shots on Target: 4.6
- Total Attempts: 9.1
- Possession: 45%
- Average Corners: 3.4 for, 5.8 against
Defensively, Burnley has allowed an average of 1.6 goals per match from 4.8 shots on target and 14.6 attempts. Jaidon Anthony and Josh Brownhill are Burnley’s top scorers with five goals each. Martin Dubravka has recorded one clean sheet during this period.
Conclusion
Both teams have shown vulnerabilities in defense while also possessing the capability to score, reinforcing our recommendation to bet on “Both Teams to Score.” In Aston Villa’s home games, BTTS has occurred in 14 of the last 20 matches, six of the last ten, and in each of their last two encounters. Burnley has seen this outcome in three of their last five matches, including their last two on the road.
In head-to-head clashes, BTTS has been successful in five recent meetings. Given these statistics, the odds of 106 appear favorable. While the market suggests a 51.5% chance of success, our experts estimate this figure to be closer to 55% to 60%.
In summary, backing “Both Teams to Score” is a sensible approach for this early Sunday encounter. If both teams manage to find the net before you’ve finished your breakfast, it will be a delightful result—one that benefits the “pre-match porridge” enthusiasts!