Benfica is set to host Famalicão at the iconic Estádio da Luz, with José Mourinho’s side eager to maintain their position at the top of the league table. The visitors arrive in Lisbon full of confidence following a strong performance in their last match, but nothing can quite match the electric atmosphere created by a Benfica home crowd. If you want to truly understand pressure, try announcing a 0–0 halftime score in front of 60,000 passionate Portuguese supporters. It’s no wonder referees tend to look more nervous than the fans.
Recent Form
In their last outing, Benfica secured a resounding 4–0 victory over Moreirense. Vangelis Pavlidis was the star of the match, scoring a quickfire hat trick, while Fredrik Aursnes contributed with another goal. The statistics from that match reveal Benfica’s dominance: they achieved five shots on target from 11 attempts, enjoyed 47 percent possession, and continuously tested a Moreirense defense that struggled to keep up.
Famalicão also recorded an impressive 4–0 win, thrashing Estoril at home. Under the guidance of coach Hugo Oliveira, Famalicão controlled 53 percent possession, took 12 shots, and saw Yassir Zabiri score twice, alongside goals from Gustavo Sá and Gil Dias.
Head-to-Head History
A look back at the past decade of matches between these two teams shows Benfica with a significant edge, winning seven of the last ten encounters, while Famalicão has two wins and there has been one draw. Their last meeting at the Estádio da Luz ended in another 4–0 victory for Benfica, highlighting a consistent trend. However, as any football fan knows, the game can be unpredictable.
Benfica’s Performance
In their last ten league matches, Benfica has secured six victories and four draws, with an impressive average of 2.3 goals per game. Key statistics include:
- Shots on Target: 5.9 from 15.5 attempts
- Possession: 57.3 percent
- Passes per Match: Approximately 487
Defensively, Benfica has excelled, allowing opponents only 0.6 goals from 2.6 shots on target. Vangelis Pavlidis leads in scoring with 11 goals, followed by Georgiy Sudakov with four and Franjo Ivanović with two. Pavlidis and Dodi Lukebakio share the assists lead with three each, while goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin has recorded five clean sheets.
Famalicão’s Recent Form
Famalicão’s performance over their last ten matches has been a mixed bag, recording three wins, three losses, and four draws with an average of 1.3 goals scored. Here are their key stats:
- Shots on Target: 5.3 from 14 attempts
- Possession: 50 percent
- Passes per Match: Roughly 377
In terms of corners, they have earned 5.8 per match while conceding 5.3, and they have allowed just under one goal per game from 4.1 shots on target. Yassir Zabiri is their top scorer with four goals, while Gustavo Sá has three. Gil Dias and two others have also contributed with one goal each. Dias leads the assists table with three, and goalkeeper Lazar Carević has kept four clean sheets.
Betting Insights
Considering the Asian handicap line of Famalicão +1.5 at around -132, this appears to be an intelligent pick. The visitors have successfully covered that spread in 20 consecutive matches, while Benfica has failed to win by two or more goals in four of their last five home games and in seven of their past ten at Estádio da Luz.
- Market Odds: Approximately 57 percent chance of success
- Experts’ Estimate: Closer to the 60–65 percent success rate
For those interested in specific bets, a correct score of 1–0 for Benfica at around +480 seems plausible. Additionally, if you’re considering a first-goalscorer bet, Georgiy Sudakov at +285 is worth noting, as he’s scored three times in his last five home matches. If corners are your focus, backing Benfica to finish under 7.5 at roughly -123 also makes sense given their average of just 5.4 corners in the last ten games.
Suggested Bet Combinations
For a same-game multi, consider combining:
- Famalicão +1.5 on the handicap
- Under 2.5 goals
- Benfica under 7.5 corners
This combination encompasses various outcomes and captures value without overcomplicating your betting strategy.
Match Odds
In terms of straight match odds, Benfica is the favorite at about -345 (implying a 78 percent win probability), with Famalicão available at +850. A halftime bet on Benfica sits around -130, while the visitors can be backed at +650 if you’re feeling daring. The draw currently sits at +160, with over 2.5 goals leading in the total-goals market.
Conclusion
This highly anticipated clash promises intriguing midfield battles and tactical adjustments, particularly from Mourinho. If Famalicão does their homework, fans may witness a closely contested match. Remember to enjoy the spectacle, and if the thrill of a last-minute equalizer turns your correct-score slip from 1-0 to 1-1, embrace the excitement. Good luck with your bets, and may they be as calculated as the strategies deployed by both teams!