Bahia and Fortaleza are set for a tightly contested match, and we’re backing the visitors with an Asian Handicap of +1 at odds of -100. This means that Fortaleza only needs to avoid defeat, and if they lose by a single goal, we will receive our stake back. There’s something satisfying about supporting an underdog with a safety net, akin to watching a tightrope walker with a bouncy castle below.
Recent Form and Statistics
Both teams come into this match with decent form. Bahia recently played Internacional and ended in a 2-2 draw, dominating possession with 62 percent and registering four shots on target. Willian José and Tiago scored for the home side. Meanwhile, Fortaleza had a thrilling 3-3 draw against Atlético Mineiro, securing 46 percent of the ball and hitting five attempts on target, with Deyverson notching a hat-trick in an exciting game for the home fans.
When these two teams last met, the match finished 1-1. Over the years, Bahia leads the head-to-head record with five wins, while Fortaleza has three victories, and four matches have ended in a draw. This balance suggests another hard-fought encounter is on the horizon.
Team Performance Overview
Bahia’s Last Ten Matches:
- Wins: 5
- Draws: 1
- Losses: 4
- Goals per Match: 1.3
- Shots on Target per Match: 4.9
- Overall Attempts per Match: 10.3
- Average Possession: 54.3%
- Corners per Match: 4.4
- Goals Conceded per Match: 1.2
Fortaleza’s Last Ten Matches:
- Wins: 3
- Draws: 4
- Losses: 3
- Goals per Match: 1.1
- Shots on Target per Match: 5.4
- Overall Attempts per Match: 11.1
- Average Possession: 46%
- Corners per Match: 5.9
- Goals Conceded per Match: 1.3
Predicted Lineups
Both managers are likely to stick with a familiar 4-3-3 formation.
Bahia’s Predicted Lineup:
- Goalkeeper: Ronaldo
- Defence: Santiago Arias, David Duarte, Santi Ramos Mingo, Luciano Juba
- Midfield: Erick Carvalho, Jean Lucas, Caio Alexandre
- Attack: Ademir Santos, Willian José, Erick Pulga
Fortaleza’s Predicted Lineup:
- Goalkeeper: Brenno Costa
- Defence: Eros Mancuso, Lucas Gazal, Gaston Ávila, Bruno Pacheco
- Midfield: Pierre, Tomás Pochettino, Lucas Crispim
- Attack: José Herrera, Deyverson, Breno Lopes
Why Back Fortaleza on the Asian Handicap +1?
Fortaleza has successfully covered the +1 line in their last five outings, in seven of their past ten matches, and in eleven of their previous twenty. In contrast, Bahia has not covered the -1 line in any of their last five matches, nor in nine of their last ten. Moreover, they have failed to do so in their last two meetings against Fortaleza.
Top betting apps suggest a 50 percent chance of this bet landing, but our analysis raises that estimate to approximately 55-60 percent. This margin of comfort is the type of edge you want when determining your stake.
Final Thoughts
Smart betting requires clear thinking, respect for your bankroll, and enjoyment of the small victories—especially when a one-goal loss results in a stake refund. After all, it is always preferable to walk away and live to bet another day than to feel as bewildered as a referee interpreting modern offside technology.