Juventude and Cruzeiro are set to face off in what promises to be a tightly contested match in Brazil’s Série A. If you are looking for plenty of goals, you might be disappointed—historically, these encounters have shown limited scoring opportunities. Therefore, our top betting advice is to consider Under 2.5 Goals at odds of -143.
Recent Form
The two teams arrive with contrasting recent performances:
- Juventude has recorded back-to-back wins, the latest being a 3-1 victory away at Vasco da Gama, even though they only had 30% possession. They managed to register six shots on target, with goals coming from Marcelo Hermes, Nenê, and Ewerton.
- Cruzeiro, on the other hand, played to a goalless draw against Fluminense at home, producing only four shots on goal and enjoying 48% possession.
Head-to-Head Record
In terms of head-to-head statistics, Cruzeiro holds the upper hand.
- Cruzeiro has won the last three encounters, including a resounding 4-0 victory at home.
- Over the past five matchups, the record stands at three wins for Cruzeiro, one for Juventude, and one draw.
League Standings
The context of the league positions adds to the intrigue:
- Cruzeiro is comfortably positioned in third place with 64 points from 33 games, boasting a +24 goal difference and 18 wins.
- In contrast, Juventude sits in 18th place, with only 32 points and a -30 goal difference after nine wins.
Betting Analysis: Why Under 2.5 Goals?
The odds of -143 translate to approximately a 58.8% chance of the game going under 2.5 goals, but our analysis suggests a more accurate probability closer to 65-70%.
- Juventude‘s last ten home games have seen under 2.5 goals in seven matches, including their last two games.
- Similarly, Cruzeiro’s last ten away fixtures yielded under 2.5 goals nine times, with 15 out of their last 20 games reflecting the same trend.
For the adventurous bettors, consider Under 1.5 Goals, which offers payouts if only one goal is scored—albeit with some risk.
Correct Score Prediction
We predict a 1-1 draw at appealing odds of +525. Here are other popular correct-score options:
- 1-0 at +850
- 0-1 at +500
- 0-0 at +800
- 2-0 at +600
Player Prop Highlights
- Kaio Jorge (Cruzeiro): Over 1.5 Shots on Target at -120 – he often tests goalkeepers and serves as their main attacking threat.
- Gabriel Taliari (Juventude): Anytime Goalscorer at +430 – confidence is high after recent goals, making him a worthwhile bet.
Corners Market
Consider betting on Under 9.5 Total Corners at -122. Juventude has not reached 10 corners in their last five matches. Meanwhile, Cruzeiro has averaged just 8.8 corners in their last five away games.
Bet Builder Suggestion
For a tailored betting approach, consider the following:
- Total Goals: Under 2.5 (-143)
- Juventude: +0.75 Asian Handicap at -127
- Kaio Jorge: Over 1.5 Shots on Target (-120)
General Odds Overview
- Cruzeiro to win at -130 (implied 56%).
- Juventude at +350.
- Cruzeiro -0.75 Asian Handicap at +102.
- Both Teams to Score – No at -132.
Anytime Goalscorer Prices
Notable prices for players include:
- Kaio Jorge (Cruzeiro): +250
- Yannick Bolasie (Cruzeiro): +850
- Gabriel Taliari (Juventude): +1100
- Nenê (Juventude): +1500
- Matheus Henrique (Cruzeiro): +1200
- Marcelo Hermes (Juventude): +2200
Shots on Target Specials
Key player lines for shots on target:
- Kaio Jorge: Over 1.5 -120 / Under 1.5 -143
- Yannick Bolasie: Over 0.5 -103 / Under 0.5 -167
- Gabriel Taliari: Over 0.5 -102 / Under 0.5 -172
In summary, this matchup is likely to be a cagey affair, perfect for those who anticipate a low-scoring game. Prepare your remote; you may need it! Good luck with your bets, and may they bring you more joy than a 0-0 draw!