Croatia arrives in Montenegro fresh off a successful campaign, having topped their group. However, there is a compelling case for keeping this match close. By backing Montenegro on the Asian Handicap at +1.5 goals (odds around -108), you can still win even if they lose by just a single goal. It’s similar to a bonus round in a pub quiz where being close enough still earns you points, but here, we’re giving ourselves a strong head start.
A Look at Previous Encounters
It’s important to address the elephant in the room: in their last head-to-head match, Croatia achieved a dominating 4-0 victory. Although that result stands out, form is ever-changing. Montenegro’s latest performance included a hard-fought 2-1 win against Gibraltar, where they controlled 70% of possession and had three shots on target. Vasilije Adžić and Nikola Krstović made significant contributions by finding the net. While their style may not mirror that of Barcelona, it’s evident that the hosts know how to capitalize on their opportunities.
On the other hand, Croatia’s most recent match was also impressive, as they secured a 3-1 win over the Faroe Islands. They enjoyed 73% possession and recorded five shots on goal, with Josko Gvardiol, Petar Musa, and Nikola Vlašić all getting on the scoresheet. Even with that level of control, Croatia was unable to keep a clean sheet—a point worth considering moving forward.
Statistical Insights for Betting on Montenegro
Let’s delve into the numbers to evaluate if Montenegro can cover the +1.5 goal line at home:
- Montenegro has covered this line in 14 of their last 18 home games.
- Seven of their last ten home matches ended within that margin.
- Conversely, Croatia’s -1.5 handicap has failed to cover in four of their last five away games and in eight of their last ten road matches.
When we combine the odds makers’ 51.8% success rate with our tipsters estimating closer to a 60% likelihood, we build a comfortable cushion for this bet. Good betting hinges on clear probabilities, sensible stakes, and enjoying the process instead of chasing after unrealistic outcomes.
Additional Betting Options
For those who want to have a little fun, consider the Winning Margin market, where you can predict exactly how Montenegro will keep it tight. If you’re looking to build a more elaborate betting ticket, here are our top three recommendations:
- Asian Handicap: Montenegro +1.5 [-108]
- Both Teams to Score: No [-137]
- Andrej Kramarić Shots on Target: Under 0.5 [+150]
Conclusion
In summary, backing Montenegro to stay within two goals is a smart play that offers a safety net. Who knows, you might even walk away from this match with a little extra profit, proving that even a Monday night can bring unexpected rewards.