Hello, fellow football enthusiasts! James Richardson here, ready to guide you through this intriguing Europa Conference League qualifier between Istanbul Basaksehir and Viking. I’ve delved into the stats with a cup of tea stronger than a Roy Keane tackle, and I believe I’ve found some genuine value for your midweek bet.
Match Analysis
Viking head to Turkey needing to overturn a two-goal deficit after Basaksehir secured a commanding 3-1 victory in Norway. Despite the scoreline, Viking edged the shots-on-target count 4-3 and enjoyed 56% possession in the first leg. The Norwegian side simply lacked the clinical edge showcased by Basaksehir.
Recently, Viking have been impressive, winning seven of their last ten matches across all competitions. They’re fresh off a solid 2-1 away victory against Sandefjord in the Eliteserien, demonstrating their comfort on the road.
Match Prediction: Viking +0.25 Asian Handicap @ -105
There’s genuine value in backing Viking with a +0.25 goal start at odds of -105. This bet splits your stake between Viking +0 (Draw No Bet) and Viking +0.5, meaning a half-win if the match ends in a draw.
- Viking have covered the +0.25 line in 9 of their last 10 away matches.
- They’ve maintained this line in 17 of their previous 20 games overall.
- They’ve covered it in 3 consecutive away fixtures.
While bookmakers give this a 51.3% probability, my analysis suggests a probability closer to 55-60%, representing genuine value.
Both Teams to Score: Yes @ -238
I expect both teams to find the net in this clash. Viking have consistently been scoring, averaging 1.9 goals across their last ten matches. They also managed to breach Basaksehir’s defense in the first leg.
Basaksehir, meanwhile, has been prolific at home, averaging 1.9 goals per game across their last ten matches, but they aren’t airtight defensively. The odds of -238 reflect the high probability of both teams scoring.
Under/Over Goals: Over 2.5 Goals @ -222
All signs point toward a high-scoring affair. Viking need to score at least twice to have any chance of progressing, which should lead to an open contest. Their recent games have been filled with goals, and with Basaksehir’s attacking strength (averaging 1.9 goals from their last ten), we should see at least three goals. The odds of -222 highlight the strong likelihood of this outcome.
Player to Watch: Veton Berisha
For those looking for a goalscorer bet, Viking’s Veton Berisha is a compelling option at +260 to score anytime. The forward will be crucial to Viking’s attempts to overturn the deficit, and given Basaksehir’s tendency to concede, he should have opportunities.
Final Thoughts
While Basaksehir holds a commanding lead from the first leg, I believe Viking possess enough quality to avoid defeat in Turkey. The +0.25 Asian Handicap offers some insurance, and at -105, it represents genuine value.
Remember, the best bets are not about backing favorites blindly – they’re about finding value where bookmakers may have underestimated a team’s chances. As my old Sunday League manager used to say, “Football is played on grass, not on paper” – and that’s why I’m backing the Vikings to sail back to Norway with their heads held high, even if they don’t progress to the next round.